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Housing Market

Market Analysis, Market Opinions, and anything else that has to do with the state of real estate markets, primarily concentrating on New Hampshire. Evaluation uses calculation of Market Absorption Rates, (rate of inventory turn measured against what is actually for sale at the time), Months Inventory, and a look at variances between the medians of List Price on Market, Original List Price of Solds, and Median Sold prices. Primary objective is to support judgment as to investment worthiness of a property

4 Unit Multi Family in Manchester and Nashua
This analysis was requested and done in cooperation with Wilma Willson in order to support investor  decisions:
  4 Unit Multi Family buildings in Manchester and Nashua NH provides a supply and demand view of that market, based on MLS data. The time period that was used for Sold properties was 6 months. To see the properties that were used in the analysis, click on: SOLD for the detail on the 10 sold in six months prior to the analysis, and click on On Market for those that are or would be competition, (for sale, contingent, or pending status).

- the market and opportunities for investors
Market for Duplexes In Pelham, Derry, Londonderry, Manchester, etc. Some of the to towns in the immediate area of Pelham, such as Windham, had no units of that type within the time frame measured.

Supply and Demand View - Condos w Min 1000 Sq Ft, 2 Bedrooms, and a Garage in 11 Market Areas - as of 5/11/1012. The evaluation finishes with a comparison of Market Absorption Rates of the type of units examined with 6 of the same market towns a year prior. Markets used in this analysis include Atkinson, Bedford, Chester, Derry, Hampstead, Hudson, Litchfield, Londonderry, Merrimack, Pelham, and Windham located in Southern New Hampshire.

All Condos, (11 markets, comprehensive look) and Derry, Londonderry, Windham (analysis by price) - As of 7/10/2012

Unlike the condo analysis done above, (5/11/2012),
the study as of 7/10/2012 references all condos on the MLS, regardless of size or type.

Sales figures were used for the six months prior to 5/11.

All data taken from the MLS as dated.

Market Absorption Rate, MAR, is the rate at which we can expect the current inventory to be sold. Over all,  the best  market for condos is in Hudson, with a MAR of 16.67 %, which shows a balance between supply and demand - not a Buyers' Market, nor a Sellers' Market. The most challenged market for Condos appears to be Pelham, where MAR is at 3.03%, which would seem to predict that to sell the 11 condos on the market at this point, 33 months are needed. As what we are working with is a snapshot of the general condo market, new data will most likely alter the prediction

From an investor's point of view, it makes sense to look at the market in greater detail. To demonstrate the value of doing that, (as a potential guide for investment decision), I took three of the towns and divided each into 3 Original Price Listed ranges: Up to 150,000, then to 250,000, and anything over 250,00.

To feel good about investing for resale, the factors I would want to get a grip on are: large enough population to pick from, a very good price, large enough markup, and the amount of time needed to realize a sale.

Looking at this chart, the potential opportunity that jumps out at me as first is Londonderry, Derry coming in  a respectable second, both in the under 150,000 threshold. The MAR translates directly into inventory turns. If I was to look for bargains, this is where I would look first.

Some other obvious indicators that you should look at are Median Days On Market, another indicator for estimating time of return on your investment, and variance between median sold prices and median current list prices, indicators that are useful in guiding your negotiations.

An examination of Median List Price of those for sale, Median Original List Price of those sold, and Median Sold Price can also be valuable indicators of what is happening in the market we are looking at.  

The specific detail numbers used in calculations and the associated MLS numbers are in most cases still available if you wish to mine the detail for additional market facts and indicators.


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